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State of the Budget Report Estimates 14% Shortfall in Revenue Against Budget Projection
Sri Lanka is projected to fall short of its budget target on revenue to GDP (gross domestic product) for the 33rd consecutive year in 2024, according to the recently released ‘State of the Budget Report 2024’. The State of the Budget Report is compiled annually by Verité Research and published on PublicFinance.lk, Sri Lanka’s premier platform for economic insights. The report provides a robust analysis and objective assessment of the fiscal, financial and economic estimates in Sri Lanka’s annual budget. It mirrors the scope of a budget report that is expected to be published by the parliamentary Committee on Public Finance (COPF), with the same aim: of helping improve informed engagement with the budget, both in public and in parliament. The State of the Budget Report by Verité Research has consistently been more accurate on budget outcomes than projections of the government, which are approved by parliament. It thereby forms an important additional input for professional economic analysis and decision making in Sri Lanka. Overestimated tax revenue Sri Lanka has not met a revenue to GDP target set in a budget since 1991. Most recently, the parliamentary committee on Ways and Means reported that tax revenue fell 13% short of the budgeted target in 2023. For 2024, the government is expecting revenue of LKR 4,164 billion, a 42% increase from its revised projections for 2023. However, the State of the Budget Report projects a 14% shortfall, with revenue of only LKR 3,570 billion. In the report, 61% of the projected shortfall is attributed to overestimation of revenue from Value Added Tax (VAT). The remaining 39% is attributed to the overestimation of revenue from corporate income tax, personal income tax, Social Security Contribution Levy (SSCL), and customs import duty. Interest-to-revenue ratio Sri Lanka has the highest interest-cost-to-revenue ratio in the world and reducing this ratio is critical for macroeconomic stability and sustainability. The budget for 2024 expects to lower this ratio to 64%. However, the revenue projections in the State of the Budget Report, together with the government calculation of interest costs, suggests this ratio will exceed 70%, as it has in the last few years. Sri Lanka will, thereby, fall short of the economic recovery plan agreed with the IMF, on what economists consider a critical indicator of debt sustainability.
විදසුන්
State of the Budget Report Estimates 14% Shortfall in Revenue Against Budget Projection
Sri Lanka is projected to fall short of its budget target on revenue to GDP (gross domestic product) for the 33rd consecutive year in 2024, according to the recently released ‘State of the Budget Report 2024’. The State of the Budget Report is compiled annually by Verité Research and published on PublicFinance.lk, Sri Lanka’s premier platform for economic insights. The report provides a robust analysis and objective assessment of the fiscal, financial and economic estimates in Sri Lanka’s annual budget. It mirrors the scope of a budget report that is expected to be published by the parliamentary Committee on Public Finance (COPF), with the same aim: of helping improve informed engagement with the budget, both in public and in parliament. The State of the Budget Report by Verité Research has consistently been more accurate on budget outcomes than projections of the government, which are approved by parliament. It thereby forms an important additional input for professional economic analysis and decision making in Sri Lanka. Overestimated tax revenue Sri Lanka has not met a revenue to GDP target set in a budget since 1991. Most recently, the parliamentary committee on Ways and Means reported that tax revenue fell 13% short of the budgeted target in 2023. For 2024, the government is expecting revenue of LKR 4,164 billion, a 42% increase from its revised projections for 2023. However, the State of the Budget Report projects a 14% shortfall, with revenue of only LKR 3,570 billion. In the report, 61% of the projected shortfall is attributed to overestimation of revenue from Value Added Tax (VAT). The remaining 39% is attributed to the overestimation of revenue from corporate income tax, personal income tax, Social Security Contribution Levy (SSCL), and customs import duty. Interest-to-revenue ratio Sri Lanka has the highest interest-cost-to-revenue ratio in the world and reducing this ratio is critical for macroeconomic stability and sustainability. The budget for 2024 expects to lower this ratio to 64%. However, the revenue projections in the State of the Budget Report, together with the government calculation of interest costs, suggests this ratio will exceed 70%, as it has in the last few years. Sri Lanka will, thereby, fall short of the economic recovery plan agreed with the IMF, on what economists consider a critical indicator of debt sustainability.
විදසුන්
State of the Budget Report Estimates 14% Shortfall in Revenue Against Budget Projection
Sri Lanka is projected to fall short of its budget target on revenue to GDP (gross domestic product) for the 33rd consecutive year in 2024, according to the recently released ‘State of the Budget Report 2024’. The State of the Budget Report is compiled annually by Verité Research and published on PublicFinance.lk, Sri Lanka’s premier platform for economic insights. The report provides a robust analysis and objective assessment of the fiscal, financial and economic estimates in Sri Lanka’s annual budget. It mirrors the scope of a budget report that is expected to be published by the parliamentary Committee on Public Finance (COPF), with the same aim: of helping improve informed engagement with the budget, both in public and in parliament. The State of the Budget Report by Verité Research has consistently been more accurate on budget outcomes than projections of the government, which are approved by parliament. It thereby forms an important additional input for professional economic analysis and decision making in Sri Lanka. Overestimated tax revenue Sri Lanka has not met a revenue to GDP target set in a budget since 1991. Most recently, the parliamentary committee on Ways and Means reported that tax revenue fell 13% short of the budgeted target in 2023. For 2024, the government is expecting revenue of LKR 4,164 billion, a 42% increase from its revised projections for 2023. However, the State of the Budget Report projects a 14% shortfall, with revenue of only LKR 3,570 billion. In the report, 61% of the projected shortfall is attributed to overestimation of revenue from Value Added Tax (VAT). The remaining 39% is attributed to the overestimation of revenue from corporate income tax, personal income tax, Social Security Contribution Levy (SSCL), and customs import duty. Interest-to-revenue ratio Sri Lanka has the highest interest-cost-to-revenue ratio in the world and reducing this ratio is critical for macroeconomic stability and sustainability. The budget for 2024 expects to lower this ratio to 64%. However, the revenue projections in the State of the Budget Report, together with the government calculation of interest costs, suggests this ratio will exceed 70%, as it has in the last few years. Sri Lanka will, thereby, fall short of the economic recovery plan agreed with the IMF, on what economists consider a critical indicator of debt sustainability.
විදසුන්
State of the Budget Report Estimates 14% Shortfall in Revenue Against Budget Projection
Sri Lanka is projected to fall short of its budget target on revenue to GDP (gross domestic product) for the 33rd consecutive year in 2024, according to the recently released ‘State of the Budget Report 2024’. The State of the Budget Report is compiled annually by Verité Research and published on PublicFinance.lk, Sri Lanka’s premier platform for economic insights. The report provides a robust analysis and objective assessment of the fiscal, financial and economic estimates in Sri Lanka’s annual budget. It mirrors the scope of a budget report that is expected to be published by the parliamentary Committee on Public Finance (COPF), with the same aim: of helping improve informed engagement with the budget, both in public and in parliament. The State of the Budget Report by Verité Research has consistently been more accurate on budget outcomes than projections of the government, which are approved by parliament. It thereby forms an important additional input for professional economic analysis and decision making in Sri Lanka. Overestimated tax revenue Sri Lanka has not met a revenue to GDP target set in a budget since 1991. Most recently, the parliamentary committee on Ways and Means reported that tax revenue fell 13% short of the budgeted target in 2023. For 2024, the government is expecting revenue of LKR 4,164 billion, a 42% increase from its revised projections for 2023. However, the State of the Budget Report projects a 14% shortfall, with revenue of only LKR 3,570 billion. In the report, 61% of the projected shortfall is attributed to overestimation of revenue from Value Added Tax (VAT). The remaining 39% is attributed to the overestimation of revenue from corporate income tax, personal income tax, Social Security Contribution Levy (SSCL), and customs import duty. Interest-to-revenue ratio Sri Lanka has the highest interest-cost-to-revenue ratio in the world and reducing this ratio is critical for macroeconomic stability and sustainability. The budget for 2024 expects to lower this ratio to 64%. However, the revenue projections in the State of the Budget Report, together with the government calculation of interest costs, suggests this ratio will exceed 70%, as it has in the last few years. Sri Lanka will, thereby, fall short of the economic recovery plan agreed with the IMF, on what economists consider a critical indicator of debt sustainability.
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Budget deficit: A stubborn stain on the balance sheet
Sri Lanka's persistent budget deficit has become a perennial issue, plaguing successive governments due to poor financial management practices. Verité Research's recent findings (Read more :
2024-05-05
The Morning
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500 new jeeps for Sri Lanka Police under Indian loan assistance
As the first phase of the 500 jeeps to be given to the Sri Lanka Police under Indian loan assistance, 125 new jeeps were handed over to the police today (12/22/2022) at the Ministry of Public Security.
2022-12-22
LBO
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Govt. obtained USD 1,873M in foreign financing
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Ceylon Today
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Sri Lanka’s tax hike will help curb inflation, cut interest rates faster – Cenbank chief
Sri Lanka’s tight fiscal policy with new tax hikes from December 1 will help the central bank to reduce inflation and interest rates faster than it has expected, the central bank governor Nandalal Weerasinghe said.
2022-11-25
Economy Next
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Sri Lanka parliament nod for 2023 budget with higher taxes, IMF reforms
Sri Lanka’s parliament passed 2023 budget that has proposed higher taxes and some basic reforms to content the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and secure $2.9 billion loan from the global lender to move out of the island nation&rsquo...
2022-11-22
Economy Next
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