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Interest Costs Have Been Eating Up Revenue
In 2023, for the first time in history, the government spent 9% of its GDP on interest payments, which took up 80% of the government revenue. A high interest-to-revenue ratio can be severely detrimental to a country's debt sustainability. This high ratio creates a need to borrow more, undermining debt sustainability and leaving limited revenue for essential government spending and investments. The interest-to-revenue ratio has increased in recent years for two reasons. Revenue Fell Due to Tax Reductions in 2019 Government revenue as a share of GDP dropped from 12% in 2019 to 9% in 2020. This is mainly due to the newly elected government lowering several tax rates in 2019. Thus, the interest share of revenue increased to 71% in 2020 from 47% in 2019, even though the interest payments as a share of GDP remained at 6%. Interest Costs Surged Due to High Interest Rates and More Government Debt Interest expenditure as a share of GDP increased to 9% in 2023 from 6% in pre-2021. This is due to (1) the domestic interest rates skyrocketing to above 25% post-2021 from less than 10% in the prior years - mainly owing to tight monetary conditions and lack of access to foreign financing. (2) Central government debt also increased significantly from 81.9% in 2019 to 114.2% in 2022, leading to higher interest expenditure as the government had to pay more interest on the excessive debt obtained. It is also important to note that this interest figure would have been much higher if the accrued interest expenditure on defaulted foreign debt had been included.
Featured Insight
Interest Costs Have Been Eating Up Revenue
In 2023, for the first time in history, the government spent 9% of its GDP on interest payments, which took up 80% of the government revenue. A high interest-to-revenue ratio can be severely detrimental to a country's debt sustainability. This high ratio creates a need to borrow more, undermining debt sustainability and leaving limited revenue for essential government spending and investments. The interest-to-revenue ratio has increased in recent years for two reasons. Revenue Fell Due to Tax Reductions in 2019 Government revenue as a share of GDP dropped from 12% in 2019 to 9% in 2020. This is mainly due to the newly elected government lowering several tax rates in 2019. Thus, the interest share of revenue increased to 71% in 2020 from 47% in 2019, even though the interest payments as a share of GDP remained at 6%. Interest Costs Surged Due to High Interest Rates and More Government Debt Interest expenditure as a share of GDP increased to 9% in 2023 from 6% in pre-2021. This is due to (1) the domestic interest rates skyrocketing to above 25% post-2021 from less than 10% in the prior years - mainly owing to tight monetary conditions and lack of access to foreign financing. (2) Central government debt also increased significantly from 81.9% in 2019 to 114.2% in 2022, leading to higher interest expenditure as the government had to pay more interest on the excessive debt obtained. It is also important to note that this interest figure would have been much higher if the accrued interest expenditure on defaulted foreign debt had been included.
Featured Insight
Interest Costs Have Been Eating Up Revenue
In 2023, for the first time in history, the government spent 9% of its GDP on interest payments, which took up 80% of the government revenue. A high interest-to-revenue ratio can be severely detrimental to a country's debt sustainability. This high ratio creates a need to borrow more, undermining debt sustainability and leaving limited revenue for essential government spending and investments. The interest-to-revenue ratio has increased in recent years for two reasons. Revenue Fell Due to Tax Reductions in 2019 Government revenue as a share of GDP dropped from 12% in 2019 to 9% in 2020. This is mainly due to the newly elected government lowering several tax rates in 2019. Thus, the interest share of revenue increased to 71% in 2020 from 47% in 2019, even though the interest payments as a share of GDP remained at 6%. Interest Costs Surged Due to High Interest Rates and More Government Debt Interest expenditure as a share of GDP increased to 9% in 2023 from 6% in pre-2021. This is due to (1) the domestic interest rates skyrocketing to above 25% post-2021 from less than 10% in the prior years - mainly owing to tight monetary conditions and lack of access to foreign financing. (2) Central government debt also increased significantly from 81.9% in 2019 to 114.2% in 2022, leading to higher interest expenditure as the government had to pay more interest on the excessive debt obtained. It is also important to note that this interest figure would have been much higher if the accrued interest expenditure on defaulted foreign debt had been included.
Featured Insight
Interest Costs Have Been Eating Up Revenue
In 2023, for the first time in history, the government spent 9% of its GDP on interest payments, which took up 80% of the government revenue. A high interest-to-revenue ratio can be severely detrimental to a country's debt sustainability. This high ratio creates a need to borrow more, undermining debt sustainability and leaving limited revenue for essential government spending and investments. The interest-to-revenue ratio has increased in recent years for two reasons. Revenue Fell Due to Tax Reductions in 2019 Government revenue as a share of GDP dropped from 12% in 2019 to 9% in 2020. This is mainly due to the newly elected government lowering several tax rates in 2019. Thus, the interest share of revenue increased to 71% in 2020 from 47% in 2019, even though the interest payments as a share of GDP remained at 6%. Interest Costs Surged Due to High Interest Rates and More Government Debt Interest expenditure as a share of GDP increased to 9% in 2023 from 6% in pre-2021. This is due to (1) the domestic interest rates skyrocketing to above 25% post-2021 from less than 10% in the prior years - mainly owing to tight monetary conditions and lack of access to foreign financing. (2) Central government debt also increased significantly from 81.9% in 2019 to 114.2% in 2022, leading to higher interest expenditure as the government had to pay more interest on the excessive debt obtained. It is also important to note that this interest figure would have been much higher if the accrued interest expenditure on defaulted foreign debt had been included.
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International Monetary Fund
Insights and analysis on the 2023 IMF programme.
Sri Lanka Met 33 IMF Commitments and failed 8 by end-June
Sri Lanka had verifiably met 33 of the trackable programme commitments of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme as at the end of June 2023 but had failed eight, according to the ‘IMF Tracker', an online tool lau...
From The PF Wire
Source:
The Morning
IMF advises spending restraint in 2025 budget
IMF stresses that Sri Lanka must focus on effective revenue measures and spending restraint in its 2025 budget to achieve a primary balance target of 2.3% of GDP, which is crucial for restoring debt sustainability. The IMF...
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Source:
Economy Next
Sri Lanka to conclude most SOE sales by August; Sr...
Sri Lanka's government-led State-Owned Enterprises Restructuring Unit (SOERU) is striving to conclude divestiture transactions for a range of State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), including Hotel Developers Lanka Ltd, Canwill Holdings Pvt Ltd,...
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Source:
Daily FT
Sri Lanka’s Governance Diagnostic Assessment: Exec...
The International Monetary Fund last week released the first ever Governance Diagnostic Assessment on Sri Lanka as part of its technical assistance initiative.
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Insight on International Monetary Fund
Completion of Past IMF Programmes in Sri...
Since becoming a member of the IMF in 1950 Sri Lanka has entered int...
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Featured
Change in Tariffs on Monthly Electricity Consumpti...
Electricity tariffs were initially revised in August 2022, which was the first revision since November 2014. However, in February 2023 tariffs were revised again (see table below).
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The Rise Of The Zombie Firms: The Problem With Rec...
This article was compiled by Professor Udara Peiris. Udara Peiris joined Oberlin in the fall of 2022. He was previously a tenured Associate Professor of Finance at HSE University (at the department ICEF) in Russia and has taught at the University of Warwick, and the Univers...
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Sri Lanka’s Revenue: What Changed Between 2021 and...
Between 2021 and 2024, Sri Lanka’s government revenue and grants rose from 8.3% to 13.7% of GDP— a 65% increase in just three years. This marks a significant turnaround from the historic low of 2021, when tax cuts substantially r...
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